The Grammys’ Producer and Album of the Calendar year Classes: Soulmates?

Do the Grammys’ producer of the 12 months nominations offer any form of bellwether for which singles or albums will win in the top rated types? Taylor Swift and Dua Lipa need to hope so.

Of the 5 talents who are nominated for producer of the calendar year (non-classical) s this 12 months, only two experienced something to do with any of the recordings staying put up in the top four all-style groups. Those people would be Jack Antonoff, who worked on Taylor Swift’s “Folklore,” and Andrew Watt, who place in obligations on Dua Lipa’s “Future Nostalgia.” Primarily based on what’s gone down with the Grammys in the previous, this overlap claims a good deal about these two producers’ prospects of winning in their category — and also about Swift’s and Lipa’s odds of prevailing in theirs.

Antonoff enjoys the gain there, as he worked on seven out of 17 tracks on “Folklore,” whilst Watt did just one tune with Lipa, “Break My Coronary heart.” But possibly affiliation will give them a huge leg up on fellow nominees Dan Auerbach, Dave Cobb and Flying Lotus.

But how considerably do the mutual rewards go? Wide range seemed at the winners in the album, document and producer of the year categories given that the change of the century, to see how often they’ve lined up. Here’s what we identified:

Going again to the calendar year 2000, the designated producer of the calendar year has also picked up an supplemental trophy for possibly album or file of the yr 10 situations out of 21. In 6 of all those scenarios, the profitable producer has picked up awards for all a few marquee categories. These trifectas ended up accomplished by Finneas in 2020 (for his get the job done with Billie Eilish), Greg Kurstin in 2017 (a significant calendar year for Adele), Pharrell Williams in 2014 (the year Daft Punk broke), Paul Epworth in 2012 (an before huge Adele year), Rick Rubin in 2007 (when the Dixie Chicks swept all) and Arif Mardin in 2003 (when Norah Jones was a debuting behemoth).

Looking particularly at instances wherever the winning producer also picked up an album of the year trophy, that is occurred eight times out of 21 this century. Aside from the aforementioned eight instances exactly where the designee took all, Steve Lillywhite received doubly awarded for producer and album in 2006 (honoring his operate with U2) and T Bone Burnett did it in 2002 (“O Brother, In which Art Thou?”).

Similarly, there were 8 scenarios out of 21 in which producer and file of the yr lined up. Further than individuals winner-take-all conditions mentioned previously mentioned, Jeff Bhasker bought both producer and document in 2016 (the yr of Mark Ronson’s and Bruno Mars’ “Uptown Funk”) and Ronson completed that two-fer in 2008 (when Amy Winehouse gained report for “Rehab” but, amazingly, dropped album to Herbie Hancock).

So we can say that in the modern day era, the producer award goes to anyone who’s also successful for both album or report of the yr roughly half the time. So what happened in the 11 out of 21 a long time where there was no correlation? In numerous of those people circumstances, a very well-regarded major identify does get swept in more than lesser lights who helmed rewarded perform.

In 2019, for instance, Pharrell Williams prevailed as producer, though the relative upstarts who generated the album of the year, Kacey Musgraves’ “Golden Hour,” didn’t even advantage a nomination. The calendar year before that, Bruno Mars won in the best categories, but the producer award went to Kurstin for the second yr in a row, as if the Grammys just couldn’t end thanking him for the past year’s Adele get the job done. Other top producer names who received their qualified group in a yr in which they didn’t also prevail for album or track include things like Ronson, Dr. Dre, Max Martin, Hazard Mouse and Brendan O’Brien.

So it is quite crystal clear there are two paths to profitable producer of the calendar year: be involved with a successful album or history, or be a substantial title in pop in your received appropriate. In the 2021 contest, there is truly no 1 who qualifies by only the latter criteria (while Auerbach did acquire as soon as, in 2013).

No nominee for producer of the year for 2021 is also nominated for equally producer and history as perfectly. But Antonoff is the lone nominee who stands a likelihood at strolling absent with even one of the major a few awards on top rated of a producer trophy, for “Folklore.” The Grammys limit the number of producers who can be nominated and earn in the top rated groups, so even while Watt did a tune for Dua Lipa’s “Future Nostalgia,” he was not supplied an formal album of the yr nomination himself for handling her track “Break My Coronary heart.”

So, even nevertheless Antonoff has never ever gained producer right before and was only nominated for it for the very first time this 12 months, he’d have to be the closest factor the Grammys have to an odds-on beloved this year, offered the Recording Academy’s inclination to imagine no producer is an island. And Swift can get some premonitory ease and comfort in seeing that the Grammys do know Jack.